Which Pakistan will turn up at Edgbaston? That's the killer question

After an almighty upheaval between Tests, visitors will be scarcely recognisable as they seek to salvage pride

Big picture: Can Pakistan's reservists turn fortunes?

Well, that escalated quickly. From two teams rubbing shoulders near the bottom of the World Test Championship, both casting around for positives, to a series result inside seven days of cricket, via (more) nightclub misdemeanours, threats of a boycott, pitch shenanigans, swingeing changes to personnel, and finally unspecified allegations about player behaviour.

All of which brings us to Edgbaston, where a rollicking tour - but not of the good kind - will conclude this week. It's often joked that we don't always know which Pakistan will turn up, and that is almost literally true after the PCB opted to bin nearly half the squad between the second and third Tests. What Mike Hesson can do to turn the situation around after being parachuted from his white-ball role is anyone's guess but, after two one-sided beatings, some improved basics and a show of fight would be a start.

There were glimmers in the dark for Pakistan as they walked away from another pasting at Lord's (only to then be hit by a board-mandated wrecking ball coming in the other direction). Mohammad Abbas got himself on the honours board at last, fitting reward for his skill and endeavour in English conditions, while Saud Shakeel was one hit away as Pakistan belatedly put in their best showing across four attempts with the bat - albeit 194 all out, which was only halfway to a notional target of 389.

The challenge for Hesson and the captain, Babar Azam, will be to coax a more complete performance from an XI thrown together more or less at the last minute. Even if Pakistan don't dip into the grab bag of uncapped players added to the squad, there will be at least four changes, with Imam-ul-Haq, Mohammad Rizwan, Ali Usman and Khurram Shahzad all bundled unceremoniously out of the dressing-room door and onto a plane home.Joe Root shares a joke with his England team-mates during their photocall•Philip Brown/Getty Images

The cynical view would be that whoever gets picked can't do much worse - even on a ground where Pakistan have never won a Test (eight previous trips to Edgbaston have resulted in three draws and five defeats). They can perhaps take inspiration from India breaking their own duck in Birmingham last year, and England really ought to be hoping for a stronger contest, to give them a clearer view of what sort of progress this series win - their first since 2024 - really represents.

The positives for Joe Root have largely centred on the emergence of a potent pace foursome, which has already drawn comparisons with 2005. With tougher tests on the horizon, including a tour of South Africa on which Stephen Fleming will take the reins ahead of next year's Ashes, a statement innings or two from the top order would be welcome. No one on either side has made a hundred in the series so far; getting to that maiden milestone at Edgbaston will be on the wishlist for Emilio Gay, Jordan Cox and Dan Lawrence. Root, too, could do with a few.

It remains to be seen quite what conditions will prevail. Shubman Gill helped himself to 430 runs on his own last year - the second-highest aggregate in all Test matches - but these two teams have struggled to score that many across 20 wickets. There has been rain around in Birmingham and an increasingly autumnal feel to the weather after the heat of high summer. We could be in for a tepid finale, but then England's home summer in Tests has been anything but predictable.

Form guide

England WWLLW (last five Tests, most recent first)

Pakistan LLWLL

In the spotlight: Emilio Gay and Ghazi Ghori

As his partner at the top of the order noted, it's been a tough summer to debut as a Test opener given some of the zesty surfaces England have played on. Whether Emilio Gay will be there alongside Ben Duckett when England head to South Africa in December could yet depend on what happens over the course of the next five days. Gay toughed it out through the worst of the conditions for 31 in the second innings at Lord's, only to then get hit on the shin by one that grubbed. His brother Simeon is a painter, but Emilio doesn't need to produce a work of art - just runs, pretty or otherwise.

Welcome to the mad house, Gazi Ghori. Pakistan's understudy wicketkeeper was, in the opinion of his coach, Hanif Malik, being groomed for Test cricket readiness by "mid-2027" but will now be chucked the gloves in alien conditions that present particular challenges for keeping (never mind having to stand up to the stumps for Abbas). Ghori, 23, is steeped in the wicketkeeping tradition of Karachi and has played four ODIs, showing glimpses of his ability with the bat. But it will likely be his temperament and mentality that come in for most scrutiny this week.

Team news: No change to all change

England are likely to be unchanged, with the seam attack having had a nine-day rest since Lord's, but they have opted to delay naming their XI until match-day.

England: (probable) 1 Emilio Gay, 2 Ben Duckett, 3 Jordan Cox, 4 Joe Root (capt), 5 Harry Brook, 6 Dan Lawrence, 7 Jamie Smith (wk), 8 Gus Atkinson, 9 Jofra Archer, 10 Ollie Robinson, 11 Josh Tongue

There could be quite a lot Babar to remember at the toss. Abdullah Fazal, who was in the original tour party before suffering an injury, and Saim Ayub, straight from the CPL and back in contention 18 months since his last Test, are candidates to take Imam's spot at opener. Ghori is set for a debut behind the stumps, 21-year-old quick Razaullah could also win his first cap, while Sajid Khan will likely shoulder spin duties (unless Pakistan opt to go all-pace supported by Ayub's offspin). Ubaid Shah, unused in the first two Tests but capable of bowling in the 140s kph (high 80s mph), looks set to add another point of difference to the attack.

Pakistan: (probable) 1 Azan Awais, 2 Abdullah Fazal/Saim Ayub, 3 Shan Masood, 4 Abdullah Shafique, 5 Babar Azam (capt), 6 Saud Shakeel, 7 Ghazi Ghori (wk), 8 Sajid Khan/ Mohammad Ali, 9 Razaullah, 10 Ubaid Shah, 11 Mohammad Abbas

Pitch and conditions: Flatter to deceive?Mike Hesson and Babar Azam talk to Edgbaston head groundsman Gary Barwell•Getty Images

The pitch was covered overnight Monday and into Tuesday morning, but was of a browner hue than has been seen in either of the first two Tests. Edgbaston decks in the County Championship have gone one of two ways, with either high-scoring draws or 200-par shootouts. A forecast for cooler temperatures and occasional showers may mean that seam still holds sway, as it has done throughout the series.

Stats and trivia

England have not won three Tests in a row since the summer of 2024, when they put together a run of five victories against West Indies and Sri Lanka.

They have won five of eight encounters with Pakistan in Birmingham, including their last two visits - by 141 runs in 2016, and nine wickets in 2010.

If England are unchanged, it will be the eighth time in history that they have used the same 11 players through a series of three Tests or more. The most recent occasion came against Pakistan at home in 2010.

Ollie Robinson needs one more wicket to reach 100 in Tests. If he gets there while maintaining an average of less than 20, he will be only the third English seamer to do so, after George Lohmann and Ian Botham.

Quotes

It's very easy to say one team's excellent, one team's poor. Normally it's somewhere in the middle.... regardless of what's happened over the last two games, this week's a completely different proposition for us. There's a very talented group of players in that dressing room and you got to be ready for it." Joe Root, England's captain, guards against complacency.

"We've practiced a couple of days and explained some [things] to the new boys. Any young player who comes in is excited, and that excitement is visible. I believe that will show in the match, too."Babar Azam, Pakistan's captain, prepares to lead out his much-changed team